THERMAL SCIENCE
International Scientific Journal
Find this paper on
MULTI-SCENARIO SIMULATION OF LAND USE SUITABILITY FOR URBAN EXPANSION BASED ON MARKOV-FLUS MODEL
ABSTRACT
The ongoing discord between population growth and available land resources poses significant challenges to the sustainable development of human settlements in Guangdong Province. Multi-scenario simulation of land use oriented to the suitable human settlements is essential for the spatial optimization of land use and improvement of human settlements suitability. Five scenarios were established, each designed to assess different levels of suitability demands. The coupled Markov-FLUS model was employed to simulate land use in Guangdong Province in 2030. The simulation results indicated that the proportions of production, living, and ecological land areas were more coordinated under the comprehensive space optimization scenario. In comparison with the standard business-as-usual scenario, the cropland area exhibited an increase in major grain-producing areas, thereby facilitating the construction of high standard cropland. Concurrently, there has been an increase in ecological land in the central cities of the Pearl River Delta and the surrounding regions. This initiative has been demonstrated to enhance the improvement of the ecological environment and human settlements. In comparison with the living space preference scenario, the newly-added construction land increased in eastern and western regions, which was consistent with the requirements of optimizing urban space in Guangdong province. A comparative analysis reveals that spatial configurations within the comprehensive space optimization scenario exhibit enhanced rationality in comparison to alternative scenarios. The land use strategy employed in this scenario proved to be the optimal solution for the conflict between population and land. The findings of this study have the potential to furnish decision-support resources for the future enhancement of land use and the development of human settlements.
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2025-04-01
PAPER REVISED: 2025-05-15
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2025-05-23
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2026-04-12
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI2602239W
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
REFERENCES
[1] Luo, X., et al., Suitability of Human Settlements in Mountainous Areas from the Perspective of Ventilation: A Case Study of the Main Urban Area of Chongqing, J. Clean. Prod., 310 (2021), 127467
[2] Xu, Z. C., et al., Assessing Progress towards Sustainable Development over Space and Time, Nature, 577 (2020), Jan., pp. 74-78
[3] Schungel, J., et al., Effects of Initialization of a Global Land-Use Model on Simulated Land Change and Loss of Natural Vegetation, Environ Moodell Softw., 148 (2022), 105287
[4] Fu, J. Y., et al., Sustainable Land Use Diagnosis Based on the Perspective of Production-Living-Ecological Spaces in China, Land Use Policy, 122 (2022), 106386
[5] Zhou, Y., et al., Cultivated Land Loss and Construction Land Expansion in China: Evidence from National Land Surveys in 1996, 2009 and 2019, Land Use Policy, 125 (2022), 106496
[6] Liu, S. C., et al., Relationship between Urban Construction Land Expansion and Population/Economic Growth in Liaoning Province, China, Land Use Policy, 99 (2020), 105022
[7] ***, Ministry of Natural Resources, P. Main Data Bulletin of the Third National Land Survey. Available online: http://www.mnr.gov.cn/dt/ywbb/202108/t20210826_2678340.html (accessed on 28 August 2021)
[8] Nourqolipour, R., et al., A GIS-Based Model to Analyze the Spatial and Temporal Development of Oil Palm Land Use in Kuala Langat District, Malaysia. Environ. Earth Sci., 73 (2015), 4, pp. 1687-1700
[9] Yang, Y. Y., et al., Scenario Simulation of Land System Change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Land Use Policy, 96 (2020), 104677
[10] Talkhabi, H., et al., Spatial and Temporal Population Change in the Tehran Metropolitan Region and its Consequences on Urban Decline and Sprawl, Ecol. Inform., 70 (2022), 101731
[11] Liang, X., et al., Delineating Multi-Scenario Urban Growth Boundaries with a CA-Based FLUS Model and Morphological Method, Landscape and Urban Planning, 177 (2018), Sept., pp. 47-63
[12] Jiang, C., Song, W., Degree of Abandoned Cropland and Socioeconomic Impact Factors in China: Multi-Level Analysis Model Based on the Farmer and District/County Levels, Land, 11 (2022), 1, 8
[13] Liu, P. J., et al., Land Use Optimization Research Based on FLUS Model and Ecosystem Services - Setting Jinan City as an Example, Urban Clim., 40 (2021), 100984
[14] Ma, B., Wang, X., What is the Future of Ecological Space in Wuhan Metropolitan Area? A Multi-Scenario Simulation Based on Markov-FLUS, Ecol. Indic., 141 (2022), 109124
[15] Fu, J. Y., et al., Sustainable Land Use Diagnosis Based on the Perspective of Production-Living-Ecological Spaces in China, Land Use Policy, 122 (2022), 106386
© 2026 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the VinĨa Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence


