TY - JOUR
TI - Multi-scenario simulation of land use suitability for urban expansion based on Markov-FLUS model
AU - Wu Feifei
AU - Lian Bing
AU - Kang Jing
JN - Thermal Science
PY - 2026
VL - 30
IS - 2
SP - 1239
EP - 1249
PT - Article
AB - The ongoing discord between population growth and available land resources  poses significant challenges to the sustainable development of human  settlements in Guangdong Province. Multi-scenario simulation of land use  oriented to the suitable human settlements is essential for the spatial  optimization of land use and improvement of human settlements suitability.  Five scenarios were established, each designed to assess different levels  of suitability demands. The coupled Markov-FLUS model was employed to  simulate land use in Guangdong Province in 2030. The simulation results  indicated that the proportions of production, living, and ecological land  areas were more coordinated under the comprehensive space optimization  scenario. In comparison with the standard business-as-usual scenario, the  cropland area exhibited an increase in major grain-producing areas, thereby  facilitating the construction of high standard cropland. Concurrently, there  has been an increase in ecological land in the central cities of the Pearl  River Delta and the surrounding regions. This initiative has been  demonstrated to enhance the improvement of the ecological environment and  human settlements. In comparison with the living space preference scenario,  the newly-added construction land increased in eastern and western regions,  which was consistent with the requirements of optimizing urban space in  Guangdong province. A comparative analysis reveals that spatial  configurations within the comprehensive space optimization scenario exhibit  enhanced rationality in comparison to alternative scenarios. The land use  strategy employed in this scenario proved to be the optimal solution for  the conflict between population and land. The findings of this study have  the potential to furnish decision-support resources for the future  enhancement of land use and the development of human settlements.
DO - 10.2298/TSCI2602239W
ER -