THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

DYNAMIC SIMULATION AND POLICY OPTIMIZATION OF EPIDEMIC SPREAD IN HETEROGENEOUS NETWORKS: A STUDY BASED ON THE SUSCEPTIBLE-INFECTIOUS-RECOVERED-SUSCEPTIBLE MODEL

ABSTRACT
This study investigates the dynamic processes of epidemic spread and policy optimization in heterogeneous Barabasi-Albert networks using the susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible model. By systematically adjusting key parameters, including the number of inter-subnetwork connections, the number of sub-networks, and node connection strategies, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the impact of these factors on epidemic transmission. This analysis revealed the critical role of network structure in disease spread. The findings indicate that augmenting inter-subnetwork connections and node connections expedites the propagation of the epidemic, culminating in elevated infection peaks but diminished overall epidemic durations. The model validation is further substantiated by the use of real-world data from the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease in Wuhan, China, with the simulation results demonstrating a close alignment with the observed trends. This finding serves to substantiate the model's efficacy. Studies on policy optimization have indicated that the premature relaxation of control measures can result in elevated infection peaks. Conversely, the easing of measures at opportune times can facilitate more effective epidemic control. This research establishes a theoretical framework for public health decision-making, particularly in terms of balancing epidemic control with socio-economic recovery.
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2024-12-15
PAPER REVISED: 2025-03-21
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2025-05-22
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2026-04-12
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI2602039L
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2026, VOLUME 30, ISSUE No. 2, PAGES [1039 - 1045]
REFERENCES
[1] Barabasi, A. L., et al., Mean-Field Theory for Scale-Free Random Networks, Physica A, 272 (1999), 1, pp. 173-187
[2] Watts, D. J., Strogatz, S. H., Collective Dynamics of ‘Small-World' Networks, Nature, 393 (1998), 6684, pp. 440-442
[3] Kermack, W. O., McKendrick, A. G., Contributions to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics - II. The problem of endemicity, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 53 (1991), 1, pp. 57-87
[4] Liu, C., et al., A New SAIR Model on Complex Networks for Analysing the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), Nonlinear Dynamics, 101 (2020), June, pp. 1777-1787
[5] Small, M., Cavanagh, D., Modelling Strong Control Measures for Epidemic Propagation with Networks - A COVID-19 Case Study, IEEE Access, 8 (2020), June, pp. 109719-109731
[6] Liu, G., et al., Dynamics Analysis of Epidemic and Information Spreading in Overlay Networks, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 444 (2018), May, pp. 28-37
[7] Kitsak, M., et al., Identification of Influential Spreaders in Complex Networks, Nature Physics, 6 (2010), 11, pp. 888-893
[8] Barabasi, A. L., Albert, R., Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks, Science, 286 (1999), 5439, pp. 509-512
[9] He, J.-H., Transforming Frontiers: The Next Decade of Differential Equations and Control Processes, Advances in Differential Equations and Control Processes, 32 (2025), 2589
[10] Li, H. B., et al., Correlation Analysis Based on Neural Network Copula Function, Thermal Science, 27 (2023), 3A, pp. 2081-2089
[11] Cao, Y. J., et al., Study of Friction Compensation Model for Mobile Robot's Joints, Facta Universitatis-Series Mechanical Engineering, 22 (2024), 4, pp. 721-740
[12] Karim, F. K., et al., Innovative Mathematical Modelling Approaches to Diagnose Chronic Neurological Disorders with Deep Learning, Thermal Science, 28 (2024), 6B, pp. 5217-5229

© 2026 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence