THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

APPLICATION OF AN ALPHA EVOLUTION ALGORITHM-OPTIMIZED HYBRID SPATIO-TEMPORAL MODEL FOR TUNNEL SETTLEMENT PREDICTION

ABSTRACT
In this article we address over-excavation induced localized deformation in tunnels by proposing a real-time spatio-temporal prediction model that couples multi-layer LSTM for local temporal dynamics with Transformer self-attention to capture global cross-variable dependencies among multi-source environmental and displacement data. Key hyperparameters (learning rate, attention heads, hidden size, regularization) are jointly tuned via an Alpha Evolution (AE) global optimizer. On four CEC2025 benchmarks, AE converged faster and reached lower fitness than RIME, GWO, and SSA. Using 1,500 in-situ monitoring samples, the AE-optimized model reduced MAE by 32.9% and RMSE by 28.5%, and increased by 3.2% relative to its untuned counterpart, outperforming standalone Transformer, LSTM, and BP baselines. Case studies across varied lithologies and over-excavation regimes demonstrate stable accuracy and robustness, supporting short-term deformation forecasting and real-time early warning in complex geotechnical settings
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2025-07-12
PAPER REVISED: 2025-10-27
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2025-12-18
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2026-07-25
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI250712147Y
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© 2026 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence