THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Branka Gvozdenac-UroševićORCID

,

Dušan D Gvozdenac

ENHANCING ELECTRICITY MIX FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS: A CASE STUDY OF THE EU27

ABSTRACT
Electric power systems are a cornerstone of the European Union’s strategy to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This study introduces a custom-built, transparent, and user-friendly model that leverages artificial neural networks to forecast the electricity mix based on historical generation data. The model accommodates a range of generation technologies, including coal, natural gas, other fossil fuels, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, solar photovoltaics, bioenergy, and other renewables. In addition to the business-as-usual scenario, three alternative pathways are examined, each aligned with different strategic, technical, and policy objectives. The model estimates plant capacities required to meet projected electricity demand in 2050 while considering direct capital expenditures for new constructions and decommissioning. Results suggest that achieving the EU27’s greenhouse gas reduction targets by 2050 will be extremely challenging under the current trajectory. A successful transition demands substantial adjustments in energy strategy at both European Union and member state levels, underpinned by a comprehensive framework that integrates technical, economic, social, and environmental factors.
KEYWORDS
Electricity Mix, Near Carbon Neutrality by 2050, Techno-Economic Modeling, artificial neural networks, Energy Strategy
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2025-09-29
PAPER REVISED: 2026-01-09
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2026-01-23
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2026-02-08
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI250929008G
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2026, VOLUME 30, ISSUE No. 4, PAGES [2395 - 2411]
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Enhancing electricity mix forecasting with artificial neural networks: A case study of the EU27

© 2026 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence